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School Roll Forecasts

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Below are the 2010 based school roll forecasts for Aberdeenshire's primary and secondary schools until 2016.

A summary of all schools is provided at the beginning, followed by more detailed information for each school.

The forecasts take as their starting point the current school population.  They then attempt to identify how that population may change over time.  In doing so they take into account demographic factors such as birth and migration rates and changes to the school roll arising from new housing.  They also build in information about school choices made under the Parents’ Charter.  In secondary schools staying-on rates for pupils entering 5th and 6th year are estimated.  Finally totals are compared to overall population forecasts for these age groups in Aberdeenshire.

In general, it is easier to produce accurate forecasts for large schools than for small ones.  Any, or all, of the factors mentioned above may vary in the course of a year.  The smaller the school the more significant variations will be.  For example, the roll of a small primary school may be disproportionately affected, either positively or negatively, by the movement of one or two families.  School forecasts, therefore, can, and often do, change from year to year.  They remain the best estimate that can be arrived at, using data that is known now.

There is considerable interest in the effect of new house building on school rolls and how the new Local Development Plan will affect these.  The new house building which is incorporated into the school roll forecasts is either allocated under the current local plan or has received planning permission.  The allocations in the new proposed Local Development Plan do not form part of the current forecasts as these are not yet included in the Housing Land Audit.  Some of these allocations are expected to be included in the 2011 Audit so they would be included in the new house building in the next set of forecasts.

In order to download Aberdeenshire's School Roll Forecasts please click on the links below. N.B. Schools are listed by network which includes the secondary school and its associated primaries.